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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2014 23:03:41 GMT -8
Just say that you've been updating this and I'm totally completely in love!! If I understood what half of it meant.. Haha, thanks Samm! For those that are interested in these charts and it's a bit tl;dr then I'd focus on SurvAv (Survival Average) it gives the biggest indicator on who is excelling so far. Going into this next Tribal Council it's not looking that great for previous Winners On Agamemnon, Kurtis has became a bit of a vote magnet from his last two trips but with Chris & Fei on the outs we could potentially see a shift in their table. Remus is just a hot mess right now, still sitting with two winners who've yet to secure Immunity and we're twelve days into the game... it's a little bit disappointing. A little. Put your money on the Remus TC being way more interesting.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2014 23:56:56 GMT -8
END OF EPISODE FOUR STATISTICSThey say what a difference a day makes...24 little hoursWhat a difference a day makes...And the difference is double winner vote outs!Just very poor performances by the Mexico and Haiti champions, a little heartbreaking because they're two of my favourite winners in this series. But I digress as we enter into Days 13-15 of Macedonia. So let's just evaluate the tribes as they stand and come to some half-acceptable outcome.Achilles Dissension in the ranks may be afoot after the performance of one Mr. Derek, HOWEVER, pre-game I mentioned that he would play fast and loose and it's a strategy that is being super effective. He has continuously been a top performer and has yet to drop out of the top four. Everybody else has been fairly consistent sans Nicole who has skyrocketed back up the charts where she rightfully belongs after a disappointing entrance on day one ranking 25th.
Projected outcome of the IC: Immune, Achilles has a success rate of 83% and they've not lost in this formation. Why buck a trend?
Agamemnon A coup may have been the moment this tribe either turns a corner or ends up against the wall. They were 100% correct to eliminate Kurtis as the numbers are far too low to keep weaker competitors around. That being said it doesn't look good going into the next IC if the tribes stay in this formation.
Projected outcome of the IC: Tribal Council - with the lowest success rate of 35% they need to validate the Kurtis boot.
Romulus All aboard the train to merge! They're a powerhouse, they're not going anywhere and it seems this tribe has the game on cruise control. A pre-planned Britti boot is imminent and there is chatter of maybe throwing a challenge but that would be crazy!
Projected outcome of the IC: Immune, like you didn't know that already. 93% success rate.
Remus Just like that kid you were told to play with because they have no friends, Remus is essentially that weird sonofabitch who lives close by and just wants to be part of the cool kids. THEY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEY'RE DOING! As it stands they do hold a better chance over Agamemnon for the IC but these kids are playing iSurv1vor the wrong way and they proved that by eliminating Jacob over Allan.
Projected outcome of the IC: Tribal Council, fairly straightforward, there is no comeback to this tribe and they will continue to dwindle until a swap saves them.
A strange round altogether, but nonetheless here are my predictions for each tribes boot should they lose.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2014 8:10:13 GMT -8
END OF EPISODE FIVE STATISTICSOh how I love this WAR! And what a sigh of relief that Romulus and Achilles finally went to Tribal Council!
This round saw a huge drop in expectations, Dave who was sitting at the top now resides 10th, Nicole to 11th and Derek at 22nd! This is in part to the Romulus and Achilles tribes voting people out, giving them their rightful place at the top and unsurprisingly, Nikki has claimed the top spot followed behind by the five of the former Romulus. Now, looking at the tribes overall for the upcoming episode it's hardly surprising that Roma holds all the cards (even with Allan's awful stats)
So going into IC#6, here is the tribes success rate
Ellada - 58% Roma - 68%
Now that we're in a two tribe formation it does give the stats room to breathe and we'll (hopefully) see some more scattered votes like we did at the two last Remus councils. And with Roma, we can definitely see that happening. No real predictions as of right now because it'd be easy to segregate alliances based on their old tribes and I'd like to have some faith that these players will take this golden opportunity to start making some big moves.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2014 1:44:50 GMT -8
END OF EPISODE SIX STATISTICS Well... that was an interesting couple of days in Macedonia!
We see a huge leap from Fiji & All-Stars 1 player Mike claiming the top spot after his Immunity win though it's not hugely surprising that the Debbie, Dru, Jared and Joanne numbers follow suit - that group of five have been tailing one another since the four tribe division, that being said unless one of them wins Immunity on their own terms they'll stay around the top spot and not really make any significant impact to their stats, not that they care (because they've got numbers) so you can't really be mad at them.
Not a huge amount of movement at the bottom half of the table, Allan is still trailing the pack and with the majority numbers believing him to have the idol it's only a matter of time before he's picked off along with the other remnants of the Remus Three.
At this point in the game it's the people who are routinely staying the mid section that are the ones to look out for. Fei, Taylor, Joey and Ryan are all viable candidates to win right now (and I would never have guessed Fei to be a front-runner) so I'd hugely expect a turnaround in their numbers within the next few rounds. Don't be surprised if they make some big jumps.
That being said, Nikki, Taylor, Dave, Nicole, Craig & Alyx dropped in the rankings so maybe not so much Taylor to bag the win.
With Roma targeting Allan right now to flush the idol through a split vote, he's on borrowed time. Ellada now have Dave and Craig on their side after the revote so it's a toss up between Nikki and Nicole as to who will be chopped first.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2014 9:06:09 GMT -8
Just noticed that I've given Alex a mark under his VFB when he's sitting on a big fat zero. Oops. This puts him at a 3.00 SurvAv ranking 17th. Alyx moves up to 16th.
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Post by samm on Aug 26, 2014 13:07:05 GMT -8
lol at Alex having 0 for VFB .. great gameplay
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2014 6:48:48 GMT -8
END OF EPISODE SEVEN STATISTICS
There is nothing more that can be said from last round, there is a sure as hell pecking order and both the dominant alliances are in control on Greeks and Romans.
If rumors are true, Roma will throw and either Alex or Joe will be booted off to flush out the idol. Overall a very quiet round and with the targets being public knowledge even to them it doesn't take a genius to know that this is where the social game trumps the cold hard stats.
Stat nerds do rejoice though! Only a few more rounds until the big merge and that is where the lines between Roman and Greek will finally be tossed aside.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2014 8:34:01 GMT -8
Ep 8 update will be a little slower compared to previous ones. Been in Hospital today and those Roma assholes sure love updating their journals with votes at a snails pace.
Remember - only original votes cast will count for the next update. Revotes do not.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2014 8:58:09 GMT -8
END OF EPISODE EIGHT STATISTICSWith just sixteen players left these people are positively dying to make it to the end. But who exactly is calling the shots? In this game, who the f knows? For serious. As we enter the second half of the competition I can genuinely say that anybody is a legitimate threat. There's been a tremendous amount of upsets and blindsides and despite all that these guys have made it this far and it's incredibly impressive.
With the Ellada/Roma groups shaken up (and not making new tribes, finally!) we should see a shift in power. With who the targets are on both sides, I'd put my money on the traveling Mike Reilly for Roma and on Ellada... I have no idea! There's definitely going to be a struggle and with the Romulus Six Alliance scattered it leaves the door open for anything to happen.
Despite Mike being a hot target, he's still hanging onto that top spot, only he and Alex retained their positions whilst the majority of players climbed up the ladder. Allan still sits on the bottom but as other people are getting voted out before him then that still means he's moving on up even if he's sitting at the bottom.
Also, if Ryan Lily ever reads this. My Bali Top 10 list was a millennia ago, chill out brah.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2014 14:24:31 GMT -8
END OF EPISODE NINE STATISTICSAs a viewer of the big reality TV competitions I feel somewhat compelled to judge the previous round based on the latest elimination from the game - ultimately, you want to escape with the least amount of blood and not waste your power on a lesser player. The last round was a perfect example of no blood, but a wasted opportunity. Whilst I agree with Mike being eliminated from the game, there were way bigger fish to fry and as we edge closer to the big merge and creation of the jury it's going to cost someone down the road when you could have saved Mike for later on and he's content with being a jury member. Whilst it was safe, it was too safe.
Overall this next round should be interesting, calling another Roma boot with Alex playing his idol. I think that there's a mechanism with the idol this season that has something to do with Dave so I'll need to re-read it for clarification BUT with that being said if the Romulus-Six can be torn down that easily it does widen the door for Allan and Alex to start doing some major damage.
Chris, Debbie and Dru shifted into the top three this round and rightly so. Chris has become a front runner after being hidden in the middle of the pack for some time now and he's starting to prove himself to be formidable, yet invisible. Nobody is really considering him a target and he's in a good spot. Debbie has impressed me this season with her performances, despite having a few hiccups from time to time she is recovering well and learning from past mistakes. Dru is... on another planet right now, he's incredibly endearing to say the least and he's (in my opinion) the most openly charismatic player. The only player who has really fell in the rankings has been Taylor - this last round he has gone back into obscurity and that is where he needs to stay, when a well known player starts flashing his blinkers and starts to develop separately from the hive then it's going to have repercussions.
Finally, I'd like to take this time to congratulate Alex Rico who after almost FOUR FUCKIN WEEKS managed to vote in the majority. This has to be some kind of record, longest time in the minority - for real, prep a trophy.
Props to the Production staff for this cast btw, with the exception of 1 or 2 entitled dick bags this season has been on point.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2014 4:50:44 GMT -8
END OF EPISODE TEN STATISTICSA bittersweet round as Dru got burned by his own arrogance. With these recent turn of events the Romulus deal is down to four people whilst the Quintz numbers now (seemingly) hold all the power. With fourteen players remaining this is where the pivotal moves will start to come into play, as I said last time, nobody wants to waste a round on a weak player. It just might pay to not make waves.
Looking at the overall statistics for this round, you'll notice Dave still has 2 in his VAP column - that is because nullified votes do not count otherwise he'd be way lower on the list.
No major insight into the round, I'm intrigued on the Dru vote so my focus will be reading into that. The Cartel is still a better alliance than TRIFORCE though, ngl.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2014 20:31:12 GMT -8
As the first round of the merge will be quite a spectacle and assuming it's going to last a little bit longer than what we've viewed previously, I'm going to do a rundown of each player, their strengths, weaknesses and predicted outcomes for the remainder of the game.
Of course, the person coming back may have a disadvantage in the statistics - HOWEVER, if they stick around long enough then they can have a stab at the top tier for sure. Also, this re-enter duel won't count towards their overall tally as this is considered an outside game event and their statistics only accommodate events in-game... so nothing counts until they've got their buff!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2014 3:19:27 GMT -8
MACEDONIA - THE STATISTICS SO FAR
What a crazy thirty-four days, in your standard season we would be preparing for the last push with x amount of players left - but this day will birth a new individual game for the twelve remaining iSurv1vors who not only will have to contend with one another, but a face from their past. In this post I'm going to analyze the iSurv1vors who have made it this far and will estimate their chances moving forward. As this is going to be posted prior to the redeemed "Magama-ite" please do take with a pinch of salt. With that said, let's begin.AlexComing from his last time in Montenegro, Alex finished on a 5.78 average placing him around the bottom half of the AVERAGE tier. This gave Alex some breathing room coming into this season as it had been five years since his last game and with time, people forget. I initially had incredible hopes for this guy to do well - he was always a consistent performer in Fans vs. Favorites but prior to that he was heavily screwed in Arabia by continuously losing challenges and being absorbed as opposed to an official merge. This time around Alex has employed a much safer tactic of being honest when it comes to who he is voting for and it's a strategy that is being incredibly effect up to a point. In the first TC he attended he knowingly went out of his way to ask for somebody to be a throwaway vote as to not upset Heather by making it a landslide vote out. The second time however, fell flat and he once again targeted Allan. In fact, Alex has only cast two elimination votes during his time in Macedonia despite lasting this far and attending six councils. Across his performance compared to the others, Alex continuously shows signs of improvement but has always danced near the bottom tier. This makes me believe that he is not playing to his full potential and is relying too heavily on his social game. As it stands with Alex, he is just below his former average with a 5.58 currently placing him in the WEAK tier. Coming into the merge, Alex is down on numbers, down on his luck and is roaming the tribe as a free agent, at this point he needs to secure something prior to the redeemed player entering otherwise it could be curtains.Allan
Historically, Allan is not that great at being a returning player, but this time he has really performed - it's a terrible shame that out of everybody left he started on the WEAK tier and continues to stay there. His last game in Heroes vs. Villains had him finish on a 3.70 and whilst he has upped his score to a solid 4.00 that is not without a lot of visits to Tribal Council. Whilst he isn't the instigator of big moves, Allan has secured his place as a valuable component of moves being played, something that hasn't been shown in-game but his voting record has him being incredibly important. Coming from the Remus shit storm, he was visibly beaten down by the game and it wasn't until he deviated away from his other tribe mates did he start to come into his own as a player. He holds his own against the votes but his challenge performance is little to be desired. As the only Sole iSurv1vor remaining in the competition (as of this post) he seems happy enough to stay as a WEAK player and whilst I'd like him to be a little bit higher against the other players, he's beating other people by being a little sucky and not exposing his hand. It's a strategy that I don't like but it's working well for him and if he were to continue like this then it could end up being a Cinderella story for the only (as of this post) four-timer remaining in the competition. He does seem to be in good company with the other players and they don't see him as a major issue, should he continue to stay in their mindset as this then it could work out quite well.Alyx
As somebody who in their first season was considered a tiny bit of cannon fodder, Alyx has been a vital component this season and developed a very tough skin and isn't afraid to get her hands dirty. Coming from Venezuela on a 4.54, she is sitting on a 5.20 which at this stage is impressive. Whilst she hasn't made many waves on her rankings, Alyx as stated previously, is incredibly vital to the success of who is going home but she has lacked the ability to not get votes against her as the people she ends up voting for end up throwing parchments at her. Her major contribution to the season is that of the Quintz alliance which (I believe) is still the strongest core group of players (at the moment) and her presence acts as a glue - I can see her being either the player who takes Quintz really far OR she breaks up this deal for something better, but to do that would take some serious balls and she's not at a stage to do a crazy move. Whilst she stays at the WEAK tier, she certainly doesn't give that impression to the other players. I'm not too concerned about her safety, she's locked in with her side but the issue of complacency lingers, those who get comfortable get voted off before they get a chance to save themselves.ChrisChris has been very interesting to watch, simply for the fact that he has been continuously improving from his last season and nobody is realizing how smart he actually is! Crazy stuff. Originally ranked on the AVERAGE tier, Chris has consistently moved upwards and has secured a spot in the STRONG tier - rightly so as he has a great record of challenge victories coupled with the fact that his votes are silver bullets and nobody has thrown anything his way. From my perspective, Chris is in a fantastic position and the others can't see that he could be the dark horse of it all. Last time he sat on a 6.75 and has blown that out of the water by skyrocketing to a 9.50, everybody likes him, he hasn't stepped on anybody's feet and this kid could actually legitimately win it all - the only thing that could be a problem is that if people start counting up votes and realize the golden child has been getting away Scott-free. Keep an eye on this kid, he's going to go far... fingers crossed!CraigComing from FvF2, Craig's placement didn't really match his overall expectations. Despite finishing in 4th place, he finished on a 2.64 but has since then proven that he is better than that by moving to a more AVERAGE tier. Since the start of this game he has been very middle-of-the road and hasn't overstepped his mark, but he would be much higher in the tables had Nax not voted for him in his first Tribal Council. That being said, Craig has made slip ups from time to time but he's not exactly the one pulling the strings in the game. He hasn't been a player I've kept on eye on over others such as Alex, Allan, etc. but that's because he has a very strong head on his shoulders and he isn't going to make irrational decisions, Craig understands what is required of him and if he continues to perform at this level he can slip on by without making much of a mess or blood on his hands.Dave
To all the Congo players who come back, watch Dave play. Whilst his statistics are somewhat hindered from last time due to the sixteen idols in play, Dave has certainly performed to the point where he should be in the STRONG tier. He shares a lot of common ground with Craig in terms of his voting record and whilst that doesn't necessarily hurt him, Dave hasn't been an instigator and I think that's down to the fact that his Mbochi brothers who came back to the game always tried to throw their dick around and he didn't want to do the penis helicopter in front of All-Stars. My concern with Dave will be his relationship with Fei, they run in the same circles and that could hurt him should a magnifying glass gets held up to it. Entering on a 3.92 and has now sits on a 6.94, Dave has the stones to do amazing moves in the merge but it is all about his management moving forward.Debbie
Endearing, likable, a little too emotional but who doesn't like this woman? Debbie has (in my opinion) had the biggest development across her two seasons. Who can remember the strain Debbie inflicted on herself in Japan to the point where she nearly quit? I'm glad she didn't and she stuck it out because that shows one thing - a shit load of heart. Starting on a 4.17, Debbie is on an 8.10 and has been one of the strongest female players this season, if not THE strongest and it's incredibly satisfying to know she is ranked in the STRONG tier. I do get a sense of Lorii's game in her own but the emotional side of her needs to be stripped back and replaced with some circuitry. It's interesting to note as well that Debbie at one point in this game had everything locked up, she had great numbers in the Romulus and after a major pagonging of four of her numbers she now stands at a crossroads with what she can do. Whilst placing herself in a stressful environment has been known for her to crumble, she can do something potentially great, it's just a question of whether or not she's ready to step up and start commanding the ranks.Fei
With Fei, all you can do is go up with her. It's without hesitation that she was ranked in the WEAK tier and I remember saying during the pre-game assessment to treat this as her first stab at the title. I'm glad that I did because Fei is a force to be reckoned with right now. She's definitely holding her own against more seasoned players and isn't that far behind the stats with Debbie. With a 7.80 average currently, she's definitely shifted to the STRONG tier and rightly so. Out of everybody left in the game (with the exception of the impending redeemed) she holds the biggest question mark over what she will do next. Whilst she has consistently voted in the majority, there is that feeling that she can't shake the India vibes that is labeled with her but if she were to do some major damage with her #NoShade ally Chris then I can see myself getting onboard with Fei - she's been impressive but her individual game is now going to be the put up or shut up time.Jared
Jared has been a favorite of mine since the start of this season, vibrant, energetic, comical and really, really, bastard smart. As a back-to-back player, Jared is the last of the Haiti group and has earned his stripes in the series. Entering on a 6.87, Jared is at the same stage that Jacob was at this point - a very strong 8.80 and he's a very strong competitor as well, coupled with his voting record there is nothing wrong that Jared can do, but as David Sampson said, you can't win the game on day one but you can lose it. As it stands, Jared is a viable contender and a worthy winner BUT he needs to maintain his relationships and down play just how strong he actually is. He's in the STRONG tier and even if he doesn't win, I can see Jared returning for a third game. I love the guy.Joey
It's a bit of a personal insult to see Joey be treated as a random "what the..?" pick when Joey has been schooling these kids since day one. It should be noted that pre-game Joey was listed in third place behind Jacob and Kurtis against their last games and yet here he is still kicking ass and taking names. With a 14.05 from Montenegro, it is incredibly hard to match that at this stage but with a 7.50 he is on the right path to continue fighting on. Whilst his challenge performance has lacked, his Tribal Council voting is perfect, I'll repeat that again, IN AN ALL-STAR GAME, HIS VOTING RECORD IS PERFECT. Nobody is making him out to be a threat but he is and Joey is utilizing the fact that everybody is writing him off as a super old veteran who can't hold his own against the others but this isn't a Chicken George situation, Joey (in my opinion) is one of the greatest social players in iSurv1vor. Throughout this entire game, Joey has stayed in the STRONG tier and if he isn't treated with the respect that is deserved then he'll be collecting the jury votes.Nicole
If you were to tell me that Nicole would still be in the game thirty-four days in, I would have laughed in your face whilst waving my Jacob banner, but bloody hell she is here and (please withhold negative comments) I feel as though this has been Nicole's weakest game. Yes, she's strong in challenges and nobody has voted against her... but there's something that I feel is missing. This is probably because I'm not used to seeing her as an individual player, Nicole needs a foil, a fall guy and she doesn't have that right now. In India she had the AoE, in Japan she had Dylan and this season she has been stripped bare and exposed to the harsh reality of being an All-Star in iSurv1vor. Currently sitting on a 7.33 average, she's hovering dangerously below the AVERAGE tier and entering this merge she can wish for a saving grace with the person who is coming back or she can latch herself onto something temporary otherwise we could see her being kicked out of the merge first again and I don't want to see that against this girl. She's been incredible over her seasons and I'd like to see a classier exit, I don't think she has what it takes to bag the win though.RyanPhew, final player to evaluate... oh shit, it's Ryan. There are alumni that think that he & I don't get along when that's not the case, we have a mutual respect for one another and whilst I'd hate to compete AGAINST him I love watching him because he's bloody good at iSurv1vor. Ryan came into Macedonia on a 9.71 and is quickly catching up as he holds an 8.50, no doubt in my mind he's in the STRONG tier and there's nothing bad I can say against him because he's playing the dirtiest but keeping his hands clean. He's a proven competitor and has a good grasp of the dynamics as he's retained the same voting statistics as Joey and at this point that is incredible. The further away that Ryan is kept from his Faroe history the better and since Drew and Britti have been tossed aside (pending the returning player) he has started to come into his own and it wouldn't be overly surprising if he were to make it to the finals. The question is whether or not he's ready to swallow his pride, something that Joey also failed to do when he was a finalist in his last season.END OF EPISODE ELEVEN STATISTICS(the returning loser will be reflected on the episode twelve chart)Fei and Jared drop down in the chart but other than that no major shifts. As this game becomes individual do expect to see a more fleshed out chart.
To those that made it to the end of this post and read all of it, you brave bastard, I didn't even proof read it! Love you.
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Post by samm on Sept 10, 2014 8:49:12 GMT -8
Amazing read!! Super well done Tucker :3
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2014 15:25:18 GMT -8
Hey guys.
The remaining updates for the S&S will be more sporadic as the rounds progress - this is because of circumstances beyond my control and at the moment there isn't enough time to juggle this and the real world commitments on a round-by-round basis. That being said, I am thoroughly enjoying the feedback and thumbs up for this and should iS24 be in the works you'll be damn sure that I'll be here with my Excel chart for sure.
The real world stuff is touching on some personal things and at the minute life is a little bit scary for all the wrong reasons. I'd like to verbalize it moreso but at this point it's hard to do put it into words. This isn't a ruse for that TV show I applied for (I got cut, boo hiss boo) and this isn't a "look at me I'm an attention whore /HLC" thing, I didn't want those who read this to think I've just disappeared without a trace.
So, TL;DR? I'm checking in as and when, Voting History and Wiki will be updated accordingly but there'll be a greater lack of presence. Hopefully this real life stuff is going to sort itself out but at the minute it's not and it has to be addressed first and foremost.
ILY.
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